Scenario Planning

We live in challenging times, characterized by uncertainty and turbulence. However, within this churn lie the possibilities for development and constructive change. The scenario planning process is especially designed for turbulent, complex, and uncertain environments as it offers a safe space for participating stakeholders, as learners, to surface embedded assumptions and uncover cognitive biases, which might otherwise be limiting, in order to expand perspectives and mind-sets to build resilience and adaptive capacity as an organization. Scenario planning is a structured and flexible process that deeply engages stakeholders in conversation, reflection, and inquiry to co-create diverse and plausible narratives (scenarios) about the future. These scenarios and the capacities participants develop in the process of creating them become the context for more robust planning, strategic action and decisions in the present.

This type of intervention strengthens capacity for resilience and adaptiveness for individuals
and the organization. In a turbulent, complex environment in which we cannot assume that
existing trends or trajectories will continue, scenario planning fosters organizational readiness
to more swiftly respond to change, shift to an alternative plan, and collaborate with stakeholders to shape the future and advance toward desirable outcomes.

The purpose or the issue driving this process could be one of many, for example, designing a robust strategy for a new environment, better understanding of the value the organization offers customers/constituencies; identification of new markets, consideration of existing or developing new options, developing organizational identity, defining better what skills are needed for the future, attracting new partners or donors. In this process, the diverse scenarios created are both outputs and inputs. After they are elaborated (outputs), the stakeholders ‘test-run’ or rehearse new actions in the contexts they have envisioned to understand better the dynamics and to ensure that the scenarios are actually applied to organizational processes and principles which they were designed to influence. This is an important learning loop in that participants can ‘see’ differently and move through ‘reality’ with a broader, deeper and more flexible sense of the present and the future.
As experienced facilitators, Fenix Leadership & Development can guide your organization through this multi-faceted process to support you in realizing the outcomes you seek. We can design and structure the intervention to meet your needs. For more information, contact: